Abstracts - Economie et Consommation

A study conducted by CERESCO for INTERBEV, based on projections by the Institut de l’Élevage, assesses the socio-economic, environmental, and territorial consequences of a 19% decline in the cattle population by 2030. This contraction - equivalent to the loss recorded between 1960 and 2000 - would result in a 20% reduction in finished animals, threatening 37,000 direct and indirect jobs, particularly in rural areas (Massif Central, western France). Permanent grasslands, which cover 44% of the utilized agricultural area, could lose 1.4 million hectares, risking conversion into cultivated land, urbanization, or scrubland, thus impacting landscapes, biodiversity, and carbon storage (up to 64 Mt CO₂ eq released in the most pessimistic scenario).
The trade balance would become negative (–€330 million euros compared to +€740 million euros today), driven by a disconnection between stable consumption (–4.3%) and a sharp decline in production (–18.5%), leading to an increase in meat imports. While domestic greenhouse gas emissions would decrease (–18%), those linked to imports could double (10 Mt CO₂ eq/year), cancelling out any climate gains. The reduction in cattle manure (–18% organic nitrogen) would increase reliance on mineral fertilizers (+18 kt nitrogen), and the loss of grasslands would degrade ecosystem services (biodiversity, soil quality).
This transition raises issues of food sovereignty and territorial resilience, requiring sectoral support to reconcile the ecological transition with the preservation of positive externalities of livestock farming (carbon storage, landscape maintenance).

The 4th Chinese-French International Forum on the Development of the Cattle Industry took place in July 2025 in Changchun, capital of Jilin Province, in Dongbei. The event, which marked the 20th anniversary of the creation of the Chinese-French Center for Research and Development on Cattle, welcomed various experts, researchers, and professionals. Their presentations were focused on France's experience in the production and consumption of high-quality beef, on the development of the bovine supply chain in China, on the advent of the European 3G system (Global Guaranteed Grading), on genomic testing, and on the experience of French Limousine cattle breeders.

Over the next ten years, meat consumption will continue to grow and drive global production, according to the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034. Due to rapid population and income growth, 45% of global consumption growth will occur in upper-middle-income countries. However, total per capita meat consumption is expected to grow by only 3% to reach 29.3 kg in retail edible weight (REW) per capita per year, half the increase seen in the previous decade. In most high-income countries, per capita meat consumption growth will continue to slow. Over the next ten years, poultry will strengthen its dominant position in the meat sector, accounting for 62% of the total volume of additional meat produced in the coming decade.

Questions about the consumption of meat products as part of a sustainable diet are becoming increasingly numerous. Injunctions to reduce the consumption of meat products, combined with concerns about consumer health, ecology and citizenship, are leading some consumers to opt for a more sustainable, and therefore more plant-based, diet. Nevertheless, the attachment to meat is reflected in a relatively slow erosion of consumption, due to a multiplicity of factors. The erosion of butchered meats now places poultry at the top of the list of species consumed.

Since 2011, IFIP has been calculating a competitiveness indicator for the pork sectors of the five main producers in the European Union: France, Germany, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands, for INAPeORC and stakeholders in the French pork industry. This work is financed by INAPORC. The indicator analyzes over 85 variables divided into 8 themes: macroeconomics, animal feed, breeding, downstream companies, production dynamism, foreign trade, domestic consumption dynamism and industry organization. This second part presents the results obtained for the last four themes: production dynamism, foreign trade, domestic consumption dynamism and sector organization. This second part presents the results obtained for the last four themes: dynamic production, foreign trade, dynamic domestic consumption and organization of the industry. In 2022, pork production is down in each of the countries studied. However, trends vary from country to country, with some experiencing massive declines. In terms of foreign trade, international demand contracted slightly, but remained strong, posting all-time highs behind 2021 and 2020. France and Spain saw their consumption grow significantly, against a backdrop of a recovery in out-of-home consumption. Lastly, the report presents the structural characteristics of each of the pork sectors studied, as well as the year's key events that could modify these specific features. However, this theme is not considered when calculating the overall score presented in the conclusion.

Since 2011, Ifip has been calculating a competitiveness indicator for the pork sectors of the five main producers in the European Union (France, Germany, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands), on behalf of INAPORC and stakeholders in the French pork industry. This work is funded by INAPORC. The indicator analyzes over 85 variables divided into 8 themes: macroeconomics, animal feed, breeding, downstream companies, production dynamism, foreign trade, domestic consumption dynamism and sector organization. This first part presents the results obtained for the first four themes: macroeconomics, animal feed, breeding, downstream companies. By 2022, competitiveness gaps between countries narrowed. Denmark has the highest overall competitiveness score, followed by Spain. France and the Netherlands, ranked 3rd and 4th respectively, saw their scores improve due to relatively more dynamic production, and France was further ahead of the Netherlands compared to the previous year. Germany’ score improved only slightly compared to 2021. The other side of the Rhine is still suffering the consequences of the presence of the African swine fever on its territory, and its pork production is declining.